Will "Pent-Up" Demand for Homeownership Blow the Lid Off in 2012?
Maybe The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) discovered a jewel of a hypothesis that some of us missed. Their survey said that 78% of non-homeowner voters going to the polls this year cite their number one dream is still the most American aspiration of all – owning a home. Let’s test this logic with a simple quiz.
Do any of the following situations apply to you:
1) Did you lose your home due to a foreclosure, short sale, or job loss, (hence you couldn’t afford the mortgage, so you had to unload your home it cheap, i.e., for a price that just barely covered your outstanding mortgage balance?)
2) Did your first home turn out to be an “accidental rental” because you’re self-employed, have loads of money, but can’t get qualified because you can’t bring a six-month stack of steady, monthly paychecks to your bank
3) Are you living with your sister? Many people are double dipping, living with extended family. That’s a win-win, because you’re either living there for free or next to nothing, or sharing the cost of the mortgage and utilities, as if your sister doesn’t love you enough already.
4) Did you finally find a job at the end of 2011, and you’re waiting for that six month stack of paychecks before you go to your bank
for a mortgage?
If you answered yes to any of these questions, look at that NAHB forecast again. It begins to make sense. It’s called “pent-up demand.” The NAHB forecasts a 16% increase in new-home sales and single-family starts for 2012. Wanna-be home buyers
, the NAHB asserts, are gathering at the gates. They says two million new homeowners are ready to roll through in 2012.
Pent-up demand is a fearsome force. Look at another NAHB report that corroborates this hypothesis. Their survey said that 78% of non-homeowner voters going to the polls this year cite their number one dream is still the most American aspiration of all – owning a home. If the gap between hope and reality begins shrinks in 2012, then the NAHB will have gotten it right.